Weekly Card
Week 3 Picks
Updated Wed Sep 18 · Closes Sun 1:00 PM ET
Season model results
2026 Season
Model Record
Model Record
14–9
Total picks
60.9%
Win rate
57.2%
vs closing line
312
10-yr sample (model)
4–2
Prop calls
3–2
Fantasy calls
Best bet this week
★ Top model pick
Thu · Baltimore at Kansas City · Total 47.5
KC/BAL UNDER 47.5
OL out (Center)Opp DL rank #4Offense rank #6DivisionalTotal ≥ 44
Edge meter
Strong
This week's calls
Top prop edgeStrong
Christian McCaffrey
RB · SF · Sun vs ARI
81.3
Projection (yds)
70.5
Book's line
+10.8
Edge
67% hit rate on this line last 3 seasons · ARI allows 4.6 yds/carry (rank 29th)
67% hit rate
Fantasy callStart
Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL · Sun at NYG
22.4
Proj. pts (PPR)
WK2
Rest of season rank
NYG gives up 130+ rush yds/game (rank 31st) · ATL OL healthy · Bijan averaging 5.2 ypc last 6
Strong start
Survivor pickTake
Philadelphia Eagles
−7.5 vs WAS · Sun 1PM
81%
Win probability
Wk 9
Best future use
Strong line value now · save KC until Wk 9when they face a weaker schedule block · PHI available in 61% of pools
81% win prob
Full weekly model · last week's results
Week 3 Game Model
Full tool →| Matchup | Total | Pick | Signal | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at BAL | 47.5 | Under | C out · DL #4 | High |
| PHI at WAS | 44.0 | Under | G out · DL #7 | High |
| GB at DET | 51.5 | Over | Both OL healthy | Med |
| DAL at NYG | 41.0 | Under | QB out · DL #3 | High |
| SF at SEA | 48.0 | No edge | Model neutral | — |
| MIA at BUF | 49.5 | Over | WR healthy · weak DB | Med |
Last Week
Full results →Game model
7–4–1
63.6% · push excluded
Prop calls
4–2
66.7%
Fantasy starts
4–1
80% · top-12 finish
Survivor
Correct
PHI covered · still alive